![]() But if you want to try to spot the top contenders when filling out your bracket, find the AQ teams that also dominated their conference and sport a shiny record. What makes any upset shocking is how unpredictable they seem to be. Second bid in a row (2019, with no 2020 tournament) Won a tournament game for the fourth time in six years Third appearance in four years during run of 10 out of 11 Most had experience in the tournament, too: UPSET WINNER So these teams were, more often than not, among the best their conferences had to offer to go up against higher-seeded teams. But perhaps even more notable, these seven went 94-18 in conference play (83.9 percent). In other words, these teams were familiar with winning and didn't suddenly learn to win in March. Those seven AQs started the NCAA tournament with a combined record of 160-45, good for an average record of about 23-6. And those Aggies got to play on their home court because of a Rod Stewart concert at Florida. The one exception was the first: 1994 Texas A&M, then of the Southwest Conference. Seven of the eight were AQs and the lone representative from their conference. Is there a common thread among these seven? Kind of. Three of the 13 seeds even reached the Sweet 16. 13 or lower have won a first round game - seven 13s and one 16. MEN'S DATA: What the stats say about picking men's tournament upsets So when do No. 7 Washington making the Final Four in 2016 after beating No. ![]() However, note that there have been surprising runs by teams that don't make the list due to the seed difference not reaching five. Looking at the table above, you're probably aiming for about four upsets per year. Furthermore, 35 of those 71 first round upsets, or 49.3 percent, were No. In total, 71 of the 122 upsets - or 58.2 percent - were in the first round. There have been seven years with six upsets across the six rounds.Īs you can expect, a lot of these upsets came in the first round, when you're guaranteed six upset opportunities in each region (from No. The most in a single tournament is seven - and it's happened a couple times: 19. That comes out 4.21 per year, on average. Since expansion to 64 teams for the 1994 tournament, there have been 122 upsets by teams seeded at least five seeds lower than their foe. SURPRISING RUN: The lowest seeds to advance to each round in history Here's how many upsets you should pick That one seed line does seem to make a big difference. So unless you're feeling really lucky or confident, begin at the No. 12 seeds own a 21 percent win percentage. 13 seeds have won around 9 percent of tournament games since expansion No. 12 seed has won a game in eight of the last 10 tournaments.Īdding it all up, No. In 2023, Toledo and Florida Gulf Coast advanced to the second round. Those teams have won 31 games since 1994 - that averages out to a little more than one win per year, on average. But if you want your bracket to stand out from the pack with upsets, it's likely best to start picking them at the No. 4 Arkansas in 2021 and Marist made the Sweet 16 in 2007. 13 seeds aren't piling up success, either, sporting a 10-116 mark since 1994. But no 14 or 15 seed has won a tournament game. ![]() 1 Stanford on the Cardinal's home floor in the first round of the 1998 NCAA tournament. 14-16 are a combined 1-348 in tournament history. 2. We also started with 1994, the first year the tournament had 64 teams. In the second round, that can look like a No. ![]() We're here to help you on where you can start looking for Cinderella in your bracket - and how many upsets you should have on your mind.īefore we go further, we should clarify that we designated an upset as a difference of at least five seeds. ![]() 9 Arkansas going all the way to the 1998 Final Four.Īs you think about filling out your bracket, don't forget that upsets do happen. 11 Gonzaga reaching the Elite Eight in 2011 or No. 12 Quinnipiac making the Sweet 16 in 2017, No. As memorable as all NCAA women's basketball tournaments are, the surprising runs by lower seeds especially stand out. ![]()
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